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What Russia does in Ukraine won't stay in Ukraine. Democracies need to restrain Putin


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  • Chamberlain
The escalating crisis on the border of Ukraine isn’t just about Ukraine; it’s the new front line in the battle between freedom and autocracy.
 
For all of his claims that he’s concerned about NATO enlargement, what Russian dictator Vladimir Putin likely fears most is any hint of democratization in surrounding countries. As Ukraine continues to develop as a democracy, it threatens Putin’s image as Russia’s savior and invites questions about Russia’s lack of freedom that he’d rather not hear. To defend his own rule, he has an interest in preventing democracy from taking root nearby.

And Putin isn’t alone. He’s part of a network of tyrants who are united in their determination to see freedom fail. It’s clear that these autocrats and aspiring autocrats learn from one another to protect themselves and expand their power. Upon realizing that accusations of “fake news” are a great way to muddy the waters of what’s true, a steady stream of rulers with autocratic tendencies have cried “fake news” whenever their dirty deeds have come to light — from Bashar al-Assad in Syria to Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela to Viktor Orbán in Hungary.

Such tactics, of course, are merely new manifestations of a long-standing effort to combat democracy. After all, even though branding the media as the “enemy of the people” was recently popularized in the U.S. by then-President Donald Trump, it has an illustrious history in none other than the Soviet Union, where it was a formal part of the penal code used to silence dissent. Aspiring autocrats have begun weakening the foundations of democracy with groundless claims of election fraud, while some rulers who have already consolidated their power are able to engage in old-fashioned election-rigging to stay in office.

Communist, nationalist, Islamist and other authoritarian regimes often learn from and support one another not because they share an ideology, but because, in an inversion of the famous Martin Luther King Jr. quotation, the existence of freedom anywhere poses a threat to tyranny everywhere.

We saw this in 1980, when the Solidarity trade union formed in Poland, putting the country on the path toward democratization and inspiring citizens of nearby nations to challenge their communist dictatorships; the Soviet Union collapsed a decade thereafter. More recently, beginning in 2010, when the Arab Spring began, protests in Tunisia toppled the government, leading to widespread demonstrations and unrest in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Bahrain and Syria.

Since Putin came to power two decades ago, he has done what he could to limit such change. When over 100,000 people last year rose up against the Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, Russia propped him up. When similar protests erupted in Kazakhstan this winter, Russia sent in the troops. And in Syria, when Assad’s government was threatened, Russia (and Iran) came to its rescue.

As autocrats win these battles and advance, they turn their attention to undermining foreign democracies and extending the front lines farther from home. Russia runs disinformation campaigns in free countries. Iran supports drug cartels in Mexico through its proxy Hezbollah and plots kidnapping and murder on U.S. soil. Belarus weaponizes refugees against Europe and hijacks an Irish airliner, contracted by Poland, as it flies from Greece to Lithuania — all members of the European Union.

If Ukraine falls, what’s to stop Chinese ruler Xi Jinping from feeling sufficiently emboldened to seize Taiwan? Why would Iran give up its nuclear program when Ukraine’s predicament is a result, at least in part, of its having agreed to give up nuclear weapons in return for aid and security assurances? And what happens when Russia assesses that NATO won’t honor its treaty obligations to protect smaller members like the Baltic states?

Garry Kasparov, the chairman of my organization, the Renew Democracy Initiative, and a former world chess champion, once told me that in the early 2000s, he and former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov warned that Putin might be their problem for now, but very soon he’d be the world’s. This proved prescient, though unfortunately Nemtsov was assassinated before he could say, “I told you so.”

The free world didn’t listen back then. It failed to coordinate significant sanctions to stop Putin when the cost of doing so would have been less. Instead, Putin kept his seat in the G-8. His cronies were allowed to park embezzled Russian money in the West. And even former democratic leaders such as Germany’s Gerhard Schröder and France’s François Fillon joined Putin’s payroll.

 

Now, with over 100,000 Russian troops on Ukraine’s border, we can still stop Putin, but interest has accrued, and the cost has gone up. We can’t afford to delay any further.

If we truly believe, as President Joe Biden said at the Summit for Democracy in December, that the “defining challenge of our time” is autocracy versus democracy, then we must decide to actually fight! The free world must unite in defense of freedom in the same way that dictators have been uniting in support of authoritarianism.

The Renew Democracy Initiative’s Frontlines of Freedom project is a call from those who have put their lives on the line for democracy to those living in the free world to join the fight. We must use the rights that those in unfree countries wish they had to combat disinformation, support democratic reforms and vote for those who believe in democracy.

This also means demanding that our leaders stand firm against authoritarians. The Russia sanctions Congress is considering are a good start. The U.S. should also help its European allies meet their energy needs without giving Putin a Nord Stream 2-shaped knife that he can put to Europe’s throat.

Most important, we should approach dictators in a way that allows us to engage when necessary but not confer any legitimacy they didn’t earn. The Biden administration, for instance, made the right choice by excluding Turkey and China from the Democracy Summit, and now it should make the same choice not to invite Cuba, Venezuela or Nicaragua to the Summit of the Americas, which the U.S. is hosting in June.

This struggle is a time when morality and self-interest coincide. We must do the right thing not only because it is the right thing, but also because global freedom is at stake. The free world has every advantage, but to win, it must first decide to fight.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/what-russia-does-ukraine-won-t-stay-ukraine-democracies-need-ncna1288395

 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
5 hours ago, slava said:

Thank You, to the people and countries of the world who stand with Ukraine today against the disease from the East, V. Putin and his Thugs. And Thank You to those who in the past have helped Ukraine regain its freedom and fight to keep it so. I have to believe that the world sees and knows what is truth and what are lies, what is good and what is bad. Yet, everyday one sees that lies repeated long enough become truth somehow, in todays world. Something about the lessons of history come to mind here, but age and memory betray me.  cnaba Ykpaihi

cnaba Ykpaihi = Слава Україні!
I suppose that the last two words are Latin transliteration of Cyrillic words Слава Україні! and they mean "Glory to Ukraine"

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V. Putin's idiotic ramblings only reflect his far from true statements about Ukrainian history and BS about brotherhood. Does world see what a individual Ukraine has been dealing with for years? Russian agreements and promises mean nothing, there it is out there for ALL to see. Unfortunately many will and are suffering because of his fear and force. His next steps will be to round up dissidents and they will disappear. This is Ukrainian/Russian history that he does not speak of. 

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We in Europe all have nuclear weapons too, a great many of them.  Between us we could destroy the world- well no, we don't want to do this.

But Putin is determined to kill as many people as possible to attain his goal to get Russia united again... WHY?  It makes no sense.  Is he insane. has he got dementia?  It makes no sense.

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  • Founder

Ukraine had been the breadbasket for Russia for a long time. When Russia was going through the reorganization of the Communist Party several republics declared independence from it during the confusion and while the military was busy killing Russians in their own country like Stalin did. Putin really is much like Stalin was. Once America destabilized Ukraine and encouraged a splinter faction in Ukraine to bring down the Ukrainian gov't so an American friendly regime could take power and America, I'm sure, swore they would defend them against and Russian invasion or domestic retaliation. But that American administration never intended to support the splinter faction. That American administration just wanted to destabilized Ukraine as a strategic move that would become obvious later.

We have no intention of ever going to war with Russia or China and they know that. It's all politics and propaganda. It is very sad for the Ukrainian people. They should never have trusted the West at all. We are weak as water an will not fight.

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  • Chamberlain

I think Merlin is right. 

Al this talk about massive sanctions is just bafflegab.

They are not putting sanctions on Putin's personal wealth or on the oligarchs who manage it for him.

They are also not removing Russia from SWIFT, the international financial system.

Europe is massively dependent on Russia for natural gas. 

It's like a drug addict looking for ways to sanction his dealer. 

It's all bullshit!

You can see Putin is shaking in his boots.

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I have to disagree.

SWIFT has to be put in place, that's a must.

The gas is another thing, I think we are strong enough to cope with this, I lived through the power cuts in the 70s.  If needs be, I can do it again.

Putin has been surprised at the resistance of the Ukraine people, massive losses of Russian troops.  Not so many on the Ukraine side

I don't know what you mean by Putin's personal wealth.

I think one thing that needs to be addressed are the mobile crematoriums, they should be targeted and destroyed.

The Russian people don't like this aggression, the massive protestations prove this.

If the body bags start to come home.  It could be a game changer.

Putin.... your dream turned into nightmare.

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14 minutes ago, Kath said:

I have to disagree.

SWIFT has to be put in place, that's a must.

The gas is another thing, I think we are strong enough to cope with this, I lived through the power cuts in the 70s.  If needs be, I can do it again.

Putin has been surprised at the resistance of the Ukraine people, massive losses of Russian troops.  Not so many on the Ukraine side

I don't know what you mean by Putin's personal wealth.

I think one thing that needs to be addressed are the mobile crematoriums, they should be targeted and destroyed.

The Russian people don't like this aggression, the massive protestations prove this.

If the body bags start to come home.  It could be a game changer.

Putin.... your dream turned into nightmare.

 

Eh,,, people discussing politics here.

There is a reason why west is reluctant for now to kick Russia from swift, there is a chance that it will hit harder Europe than it will Russia. Anyways what will be German alternative for gas, Arabs? From the moral stand of point whats the difference?

Stories about resistance is mostly propaganda, Ukraine has 40M people and you'd expect stronger fight from country of that size. President was already yesterday desperate handing weapons to untrained civilians.

West underestimated Russia and sadly thanks to propaganda you are falling for it still.

Russians are basically steam rolling Ukraine, they are in Kyev. It's has been day two and this is what they took already

 

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On 2/25/2022 at 12:10 AM, Merlin said:

Ukraine had been the breadbasket for Russia for a long time. When Russia was going through the reorganization of the Communist Party several republics declared independence from it during the confusion and while the military was busy killing Russians in their own country like Stalin did. Putin really is much like Stalin was. Once America destabilized Ukraine and encouraged a splinter faction in Ukraine to bring down the Ukrainian gov't so an American friendly regime could take power and America, I'm sure, swore they would defend them against and Russian invasion or domestic retaliation. But that American administration never intended to support the splinter faction. That American administration just wanted to destabilized Ukraine as a strategic move that would become obvious later.

We have no intention of ever going to war with Russia or China and they know that. It's all politics and propaganda. It is very sad for the Ukrainian people. They should never have trusted the West at all. We are weak as water an will not fight.

I agree with you on almost everything except that west is weak, it's a global power play and Ukraine fell a victim to it. It's not that west has no strength to take on Russia, it does - but what would be final price for all of us? There would be no winners.

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  • Founder
19 minutes ago, toxicweasel said:

I agree with you on almost everything except that west is weak, it's a global power play and Ukraine fell a victim to it. It's not that west has no strength to take on Russia, it does - but what would be final price for all of us? There would be no winners.

You’re right. The West is powerful but the cost of action would be great. The problem, as I see it, is a matter of priorities. The West (ie The US) has poured trillions into foreign aid and military “assistance” for decades. Ukraine never made the cut for either of those handouts. We instigated the pro-West, pro-EU movement in Ukraine because we could. When Russia responded we left them holding the bag. Our priorities don’t allow us to have direct confrontations with Russia. There’s always a scapegoat. The thing we need to face is we are a paper tiger. We stir up trouble then sacrifice the pawns. Russia knows we will run for cover soon as the lead flies.

Russia and USA both waste money and energy playing these deep state games when we should be working together. Our common adversary is China. China isn’t wasting resources on military games. They use spies, thievery and their immense wealth from slave labor in manufacturing to buy media snd financial interests abroad then propagandize. That’s their game. In our minds we know what they’re up to but don’t risk making China retaliate.

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The Ukranian people are showing tremendous spirit, much like the UK did in WW11.  They will keep doing it, I have no doubt.  Because this is their homeland, they will stand and fight for every inch of ground.

In the end, they may be defeated, but with our help, we may dissuade Russia from continuing with this aggression.

I assume you include Europe in the West statement, it's not all about the USA.  Europe is massive and nearer to the problem from Russia.

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  • Founder
5 hours ago, Kath said:

"...

I assume you include Europe in the West statement, it's not all about the USA.  Europe is massive and nearer to the problem from Russia."

Yes. When I say The West it means America, Australia, Canada and Europe. The Western Civilization that was built on the ruins of Rome and Greece by the descendants of those previous successful civilizations that ultimately collapsed because of the same problems we are having today. It's the Chaos Theory at work. I don't think we can stop chaos.

... (I edited my reply after re-reading it, I realized it was so far afield from the topic it needed go)

As I said earlier Russia can do whatever it likes in and around Ukraine without any practical interference from The West.

Please forgive me for digressing. I just got carried away in a thought.

I hope I answered your question, Kath.

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18 hours ago, Kath said:

The Ukranian people are showing tremendous spirit, much like the UK did in WW11.  They will keep doing it, I have no doubt.  Because this is their homeland, they will stand and fight for every inch of ground.

In the end, they may be defeated, but with our help, we may dissuade Russia from continuing with this aggression.

I assume you include Europe in the West statement, it's not all about the USA.  Europe is massive and nearer to the problem from Russia.

Sure, if you watch only propaganda and form an opinion it. Ukraine agrees to sit and talk. I'm afraid that this is only light weight attack with intention to solve conflict with minimum casualties. Take a look how Grozny ended after escalation with Russians.

Russians are in Kyiv, I do not know in what book is this holding the enemy. Even blitzkrieg is considered something that last longer than a month.

Regarding help, you are not exactly allowed to help legally since Ukraine isn't part of any alliance, and guess what, after west started sending arms and "volunteers" Russia draws big guns, exactly what they said it's going to happen if someone jumps in. Is this what we want?

If west wasn't strong enough to prevent this, why pushing Ukrainian people in direction of utter destruction???? Do you want new Afghanistan in Europe???

 

I mean " In the end, they may be defeated " - How many Ukrainians are you willing to sacrifice now that it started just to make what point exactly? Makes zero sense. This madness should end NOW and with help of west and Russia new neutral Ukraine should be built.

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  • Founder

As wrong as the EU/USA interference in Ukraine was this all out invasion and occupation by Russia is absolutely wrong. Not only are civilians being killed but young military personnel from Russia and Ukraine are being killed and Ukraine is being devastated by destruction of what little the Ukrainian people have left after the ongoing confrontation with Russia since the fall of the Soviet Empire. No one can factually defend the military action taken by Russia. Treating Ukrainians this way isn't helping them nor the Russian people.

I'm disgusted by the interference of EU/USA in Ukraine and I am appalled by the military action taken by Putin. It really does remind me of what I read as a student about Stalin. The world doesn't need another Stalin but that's what we have, in my opinion.

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27 minutes ago, Merlin said:

As wrong as the EU/USA interference in Ukraine was this all out invasion and occupation by Russia is absolutely wrong. Not only are civilians being killed but young military personnel from Russia and Ukraine are being killed and Ukraine is being devastated by destruction of what little the Ukrainian people have left after the ongoing confrontation with Russia since the fall of the Soviet Empire. No one can factually defend the military action taken by Russia. Treating Ukrainians this way isn't helping them nor the Russian people.

I'm disgusted by the interference of EU/USA in Ukraine and I am appalled by the military action taken by Putin. It really does remind me of what I read as a student about Stalin. The world doesn't need another Stalin but that's what we have, in my opinion.

No one can justify this aggression but I do understand why it happened.

West should stop sending weapons to Ukraine cause this is just going to escalate the war.... it's too late for such action, civilians who got arms already had numerous friendly fire incidents, they even gunned  down Ukrainian troops cause they have no clue what are the doing,

Western leaders still want you to believe that Ukraine is winning but according to latest news and Mayor of Kyiv the capital is under a siege. No one can enter nor leave.

To put this into perspective, very soon there will be no food nor most of the other basic needs products. Blaming Putin and at the same time sending arms makes no sense. Western countries are actively fueling this conflict by providing the "aid".

 

Edited by toxicweasel
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